Mom

This is an edited version of a long letter I wrote to my mother.

November 24, 2003

Dear Mom:

I'm thrilled to hear how well you are doing, recovering from your bout with West Nile Virus. The sound of your voice and your sense of humor, do me good.

I am sorry that you can't remember the week after you got out of the hospital. Several of your children came by to help both before and after, and so did several friends and neighbors. Marla was a trooper, doing more than we can ever thank her for. You have raised some fine children, and your neighbors' concern shows how much you have touched their lives.

At one point, you were feeling down and wondered whether you had really done any good in your life. I told you what a difference you have made in many people's lives. Scientists say that we never really forget anything, but that trauma doesn't let us remember truly painful things, so we forget the thing just before the pain, or for some time after. So, at some level, we do remember the events, but we block them out. I pray that in your spirit, you do remember what I said, since I believe it brought you much joy and comfort.

Mom, you gave life to thirteen children, and although one has gone on to be with the Lord, you raised twelve responsible adults, who contribute to the lives of not only their families, but the community. None of them are drunks or drug addicts, all of them work hard, and they all love you and each other. We are all good husbands or wives, good parents, and we all try to do our best. We are all better people than we would have been without you. You worked every day to feed and clothe us, you ensured we got good educations, and you loved us even when we did things we clearly should not have. You have kept us in line, you have helped keep Dad in line, and you did it all with grace and good humor. You are the best person I have ever known.

At that point, Dad said that if I kept talking, you would think you were an angel. No, Mom, not an angel, since angels are created beings, sent to minister to the saints. You are one of those saints, a human being, with the faults of a human being. But, you accepted Jesus Christ at an early age, and you have lived a Christian life. At least three of your sons and both daughters are walking with Jesus. None of us perfectly, but we will go to heaven when we die. With the next salvation, the majority of your children are destined for heaven – how many mothers can claim such an achievement?

The plaque that you hung in each house we lived in quotes Proverbs 3:6 "In all your ways acknowledge Him, and He shall direct your paths." I remember you quoting Ruth, “Where you go, I will go, where you lodge, I will lodge. Your people shall be my people, and your God, my God. Where you die, I will die, and there I shall be buried.” You said that that was your vow when you got married. Mom, you have fulfilled your vow.

Jesus said that, if we want to be a leader, we should be a servant, and if we want to be the leader of all, we should be the servant of all. You have been a servant to your husband, to every one of your children, to your friends and neighbors, to your parents, to your brothers and sisters, and to everyone within your reach.

You are the best person I have ever met.

Mom, the only complaint you had when you were sick was that you wished you could help others rather than being a burden. Mom, it was a pleasure to serve you, and in some small way to repay you for your servanthood through all these years. Mom, you have been the servant of all, and I am confident that hereafter there is laid up for you a crown of righteousness.

Whatever successes any of your children have achieved are partly due to your guidance and leadership.

I love you, and hope to see you soon.

Greg

This June, I had the opportunity to share this letter with several family and friends. I read it as my mother's eulogy. She passed away peacefully, and is now in God's presence, where God has wiped away any tears she may have.

Mom led a long and Godly, Christian life, and I can only repeat: Mom, you have fulfilled your vow, and I love you.

What Happened in Japan?

Having just watched "Nuclear Nightmare: Japan In Crisis" with Paula Zahn, I must say that Paula Zahn and the Discovery Channel got it pretty much right.

The Richter 9 earthquake, and the 47 foot tsunami after it, resulted in unbelievable damage to the Fukushima nuclear plants (all six of them).

Fukushima was designed for a 7.9 earthquake and a 30 foot tsunami.

The worst result was at plant four. The spent nuclear fuel in plant 4 was safe - until the water in the pool either splashed out drained out through a crack. The fuel overheated, reacted with the steam, and created hydrogen. The hydrogen exploded on day four - at dawn on March 15. But guess what? The hydrogen was inside the partially melted nuclear fuel. The explosion sprays nuclear material into the air, causing a "radiation spike" and the majority of the radioactive material release.

Or maybe not. Plant two found a radioactive water release, which was not stopped until April 5. But this plant's containment was suspected to be damaged on March 15 - and the water release probably started as soon as the damage occurred.

Worse, and a surprise to many in the nuclear community - the plant 2 containment was probably damaged and cracked on day 1. Either the earthquake shock wave cracked the suppression pool, called a torus, or the tsunami bent the entire nuclear plant on it's foundation, which cracked the torus.

And the massive radioactive release began on day 1. Day 1, when the fuel had not had time to decay to anything anywhere near safe levels.

This is my conclusion, for whatever it is worth.

And it is the best way I know to explain how the release could be 1/10 of what Chernobyl released. (Al though I believe the release was way below that.)

We won't know for sure for six months or more, when humans can examine the plants carefully.

Japan's Nuclear Nightmare

In spite of a dearth of information, here is how I see the Japanese nuclear situation.

When the U.S. DOE provided maps of the nuclear contamination http://blog.energy.gov/content/situation-japan I calculated the total release, getting 5.9 million curies (5,900,000). That is about 1/10 what Chernobyl released.

But, I found an error in my calculations - I had assumed point sources beneath the radiation detectors. Actually each detector received radiation from directly below it, and from the areas nearby, and from everywhere out to the horizon. When I calculated assuming a spread-out source, I got just 15,000 curies released. Which one is more accurate? That depends on how the U.S. DOE did it's calculations.

The DOE maps do not show what they detected - the airplanes flew several hundred feet up, and detected radiation at that level. They then put out maps showing how bad it is at knee high (one meter). Unless I can see how they re-calculated to get what they reported, I cannot be sure how accurate my calculations are.

Before I could get someone to check my modelling and my math, Japan's nuclear safety agency reported that the total release was 5,000,000 curies, or 1/10 of what Chernobyl released (check this, http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1304052023P.pdf , second page, red line near the bottom).

I was so disheartened that I made no new blog entries for 26 days.

BUT ... Japan also reports that the maximum dose to infant's thyroids will be less than 50 Rem. That is consistent with 15,000 curies, not with 5,000,000 curies.

Did Japan's nuclear safety agency make the same mistake that I made? Are they now afraid to correct their published error? I hope so.

All the information I have says, the release was less than 150,000 curies.

A nightmare; a disaster; but not a Chernobyl and not a catastrophe.

Not enough to cause more than about 40 deaths to members of the public.

The Fukushima 50 are a different matter. Their doses are quite high; they may have sacrificed their health, or even their lives, to keep the rest of us safe. May God bless them and keep them - and theirs.

Bad but not a Catastrophe

The Fukushima Fifty operators believe they may die from radiation exposure. Pray for them, and thank God for keeping them loyally on the job. Their efforts have kept the disaster from growing to a catastrophe.

And, child doses, even to the thyroid, is minimal. 900 infants were tested and are OK. My apology for optimism below, may have been premature. http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/aij/member/2011/earthquakereport41.pdf

The United States Department of Energy has flown over the Fukushima area and recorded the radiation. http://blog.energy.gov/content/situation-japan

Maximum doses outside the plant are less than 0.03 Rem per hour. That means 100 hours would get people 3 Rem, or 1000 hours would give 30 Rem.

30 Rem is where doctor's can test the blood, and find minor changes. Below that level, there are no short-term effects.

The radiation has dropped by a factor of ten in two days. Unless something major happens, the people will not ... repeat, not, get more that 30 Rem. No short-term effects.

That leaves cancer and other major illnesses.

The total release cannot be accurately estimated - yet. Japan and the utility, TEPCO, have not released enough information.

Nuclear reactors have several layers of defense against a release. The innermost one is the fuel itself. It is hard to melt this ceramic fuel. Second is a primary cooling system, with steel walls. Third that is a containment building, with steel lining and reinforced concrete strength. Fourth is a reactor building, which protects the containment.

But, the fuel and primary coolant system of three plants (1,2,3) are severely damaged or melted (and re-frozen). The containments of all three are functional, although one is damaged. Radiation within the fuel has decayed so much that it is highly unlikely that any containment will be further damaged. This means that the reactor fuel will stay in the reactors - all but about 1 percent, which has already been released. Plants one and three had hydrogen explosions outside the containment, but inside the reactor building.

And, the fuel in one spent nuclear fuel pool - for unit 4 - has been damaged and probably melted. This is the unit which had a hydrogen explosion, and it apparently happened while the fuel was melted. How could it melt? The best judgement on this side of the Pacific is, this spent fuel pool either splashed nearly dry during the Richter 9 earthquake, or more likely, it leaked due to the quake.

This hydrogen explosion drove fuel outside the nuclear plant, and may explain the hot spots of radiation scattered over two prefectures. If people stay away from these hot spots, they should be OK.

The rest of the reactors are reasonably safe.

Thanks to God and the loyalty of the Fukushima Fifty.

Japan's Public Radiation Dose

Japanese infants are receiving far more radiation dose more than I have been expecting. I apologize for my earlier optimism.


According to a press release, http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110324p2a00m0na037000c.html, "The Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan (NSC) has made its first announcement on the estimated amount of radiation exposure in areas located around 20 and 30 kilometers from a quake- and tsunami-crippled nuclear plant in Fukushima Prefecture. The commission concluded the accumulated amount of radiation exposure per person was 500 millisieverts in areas within the "indoor standby zone" between 20 and 30 kilometers from the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant -- where people have been instructed by the government to remain indoors to avoid radiation risks -- over the course of 12 days following the March 11 disaster."

That is 50 Rem, for U.S. readers. The U.S. limit for dose to the skin is also 50 Rem. But, most of this dose is to the thyroid gland in the neck. And the calculation is for infants.

So, what does this mean?

Fortunately, the data indicates that there is little risk of effects at this exposure level. Unfortunately, there is not enough data to be definite about that. Thyroid doses are less dangerous than whole body doses, by about a factor of 20. http://www.oecd-nea.org/rp/chernobyl/c04.html But, infant doses are more dangerous, partly because they are growing quickly, and partly because they will live long enough to develop cancer or other diseases.

I wish that I could be more optimistic.

Chernobyl area residents got about 1.4 gray of dose, or 140 Rem. So that is about three times as much as Japanese infants near the plants have gotten - and the total they are likely to get is about what Chernobyl residents got.

That is far more than I have been expecting. I apologize for my earlier optimism.

But, these doses are calculated for infants, and the dose is to the thyroid. As best I can tell, no one else will get doses that high.

Therefore, cancers will be fewer than were caused by Chernobyl.

And it is still true that U.S. residents will receive far less dose. Washington State has a web page for airborne radiation, showing that, even with the releases from Japan, dose rates here are below the average annual rates from last year. http://www.doh.wa.gov/Topics/japan/monitor.htm

What is Radioactivity?

Radioactivity may seem mysterious, but it has been part of our world at least since the Fall of Man.

When Marie Curie noted that uranium could make air conductive to electricity, she dubbed it "radioactive".

The more prosaic story that I was taught in grammar school was, a scientist found that uranium could make a radio click. Thus uranium made radio receivers active. Uranium is radio - active.

Many other naturally-occurring materials are radioactive as well.

Nuclear disaster and natural catastrophe

Science Daily http://www.sciencedaily.com/ has a linked article on the Japanese earthquake and the resulting nuclear disaster. http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre72g65z-us-japan-quake-meltdown-specialreport/

Except for one sentence, I agree with the article. The article says "As the first pictures of the destruction around the northern town of Sendai were beamed across Japan and around the world in the hours after the quake, authorities initially said they had safely shut down the four nuclear plants closest to the earthquake and tsunami zone.

It wasn't true. With no power to the plant's cooling system, the water that circulates around the fuel rods inside the six reactors at Fukushima had already begun to boil off. Within a few hours authorities declared a "nuclear emergency situation" at the plant. While no radiation release had been detected, they said, residents around the plant should evacuate."

It was 93 percent true. The control and safety rods entered the core, and fission went from 93 percent of design power to 0.01 percent power. Fission product decay remained at 7 percent power. That is how nuclear engineers define "safely shut down", so the statement was true. But, that 7 percent power continued to heat the fuel rods, and that heat needed to be carried away. It was carried away - safely - until fifteen minutes later when a 30 foot tsunami hit and wiped out the fuel supply for the emergency diesel generators.

Then, a natural disaster became a catastrophe. And the nuclear event became a disaster.

But, so far, the nuclear disaster has not become a catastrophe.

The current situation is:

The reactors at Fukushima Daini are recovering, with three of the four damaged and in a Level 3 event state. Those three reactors may, or may not, restart after damage is repaired. The fourth has a better chance

Three of the six reactors at Fukushima Daiichi are in serious trouble, with probably molten fuel in the cores; they are in Level 5 event states; the other three reactors were in an outage, and fuel was already removed from one when the quake struck. Fuel in then other three is safe. (see http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1300624909P.pdf)

I would be astounded if reactors # 1 , 2, or 3 ever operate again. Meanwhile, the fuel storage pool for #4 was dried out - either by sloshing during the quake or by a leak. The stored fuel overheated, the cladding reacted with remaining water, and there was a hydrogen explosion outside the containment which destroyed the reactor building. Water was restored by fire cannon and helicopter drop.

All six reactor cores are inside containments, and all six containments are functional, although unit #2 has suspected damage.

As long as the containments remain reasonably intact, Japanese citizens have no cause for fear - though they may be very fearful. Many times, smaller earthquakes than this cause deaths from heart attacks. The nuclear risks may also cause heart attacks. Preventing those fear-induced medical events is a major purpose of these posts.

For United Sates residents, there is no reason to fear. As noted below, the radioactivity within the fuel cores has decayed to less than 0.14 percent of full power, so even if something could somehow vaporize the cores and the containments, the result would be less than one in 50 of what Chernobyl was. And the evacuation to 12 miles makes it less than one in 1,000 of Chernobyl. That means, less than four cancers - worldwide.

As to the radioactivity now reaching U.S. shores, the level is below what we get when we eat bananas. That's right, bananas. Eating one banana shows up when nuclear professionals get our annual "whole body count". Every time they do this, I have the same count - one body :-). The "whole body count" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whole_body_counting ) measures the radioactive material in the human body. If too much potassium-40 shows up, the technician asks how many bananas we eat. Bananas have lots of potassium, some of which is radioactive potassium-40. The benefits of potassium far outweigh any negative effects of the radiation. So, eat your bananas, and take courage - this "radioactive cloud" is less than one billionth of what we should worry about.