Monday, October 10, 2011
Saturday, October 1, 2011
Subject Located
On September 22, 2011, I had the tremendous privilege and opportunity of leading five people into The Wave at Paria.
That evening, I had the tremendous burden of following four people out.
The trip from Washington State was tremendous, with gorgeous scenery and pleasant fellowship. The three of us met the other two in Kanab, Utah, and drove 30 miles east, then turned and drove 8.2 miles on a rock (dirt?) road to the trailhead. We slept there overnight, and left at 7 AM, as soon as it was light enough to walk over the cobbles in the river bed. The five-mile walk to The Wave was also pleasant, helped by my having been there once before.
The Wave is as beautiful as ever, although the delicate sandstone ledges have been worn off by people in the last three years. I had prayed for a reflecting pool, and although there wasn’t one at the base of The Wave, there were five higher up. I can hardly wait for the slides to come back.
After lunch, we agreed to meet at 1:30 at the entrance, to begin the walk back. We should depart with about 2 quarts of water per person, and 1:30 was when we would be that low. At 1:00, one of us, who will go un-named, decided that he could visit the Second Wave, and “I will be back in 15 minutes”. Thirty minutes later, we began our search for him. Did I mention that we had three rules? 1. Take at least 1 ½ gallons of water, each, 2. Stay in sight of the group, and 3. No shortcuts.
We searched for four hours, shouting his name, using my whistle, and getting six other hikers involved. No sign of him. At least, every drop-off into the 800-foot deep the canyon had undisturbed sand at the lip, so if he went down, it was under his own power. When we were down to one quart of water each, I made the most difficult decision of my hiking career. Staying and dying of thirst would do him no good, and if we returned to the trailhead and then to Kanab, we could get a search party together.
We left after four hours of searching.
I was so tired from hiking that long that one of us had to carry my pack as well as his.
When we got to the trailhead, someone shouted that his pickup doors were open. Elation soared. Until we saw that it was some one else’s pickup.
He was still missing.
A French couple had walked past us on the trail out, and notified the Bureau of Land Management. The initial search party passed us on the dirt road. We told them everything we knew, and drove to Kanab, Utah. After notifying the other authorities, and his wife, we were told to stay in town for the night. One agency said to be at the trailhead at first light, and we could join the search. Another agency said, no, stay in Kanab and do not join the search.
They had guns so we did not argue much – that night.
The compromise the next day was that we could be at the trailhead at 10:00 AM.
The Search and Rescue helicopter, and several hiking search crews, were at the trail head when we arrived. Other hikers, including the other tourists, had left and were searching. But, the helicopter had been out twice during the night, and now the search had been on for four hours of daylight.
No sightings.
And the SAR crews told us that one hiker had already died this year, from dehydration. Couldn’t they have kept that tidbit of information to themselves?
The last two of us to see our friend carefully described where he was last seen, and pointed out on the topographic map where he was likely to be. 1. Within ½ mile of his last location, if he was injured. 2. Just past the Second Wave, and then climbed to the top of the canyon. 3. After climbing to see landmarks, he might be at the top of The Wave.
The last was the hardest place for hikers to get to, so the helicopter headed to the top of The Wave.
We briefed other search crews as they were ready to depart.
At 10:30 AM, the radio crackled with “subject located”. The SAR incident commander put the radio on that signal only, and we waited. A few minutes, later the call was “subject getting into helicopter”. We all asked, does that mean under his own power? That was quickly confirmed, and the searches were recalled while I broke down.
My only tears before that were when the French couple asked whether it was hard, abandoning our friend. I said, grimly, that I have never abandoned anyone in the field, and I am not abandoning him now. We are going to find him at the trail head, and if he isn’t there we will get together a search party. We WERE NOT abandoning him.
Now that I knew he was safe, I wept openly, and so hard that two search crews asked if I needed help. No, I was just overcome by emotion, and that emotion was good.
To Coconino County Search and Rescue: Thank you.
To the Marine on the helicopter crew: Thank you. This Navy man has a greater respect for the USMC. Long may you proudly serve.
Especially to God: Thank you. Only You could save his life. Thank You. Thank You. Thank You.
Our friend described his experience, and does not want any one to think that he was lost. He merely had trouble locating the rest of us.
He returned to The Wave fifteen minutes after he left us, but we were not there, and it was not The Wave. He decided to try the next small canyon up, and when we were not there, he tried the next canyon up.
Eventually, he went up high enough to spot land marks in the permit photographs, but from that high they were not recognizable.
It seems the he started a canyon or two too high and went still higher.
He was found on top of The Wave, about 1,000 feet above where he needed to be.
Because I broke my vow and carried more than enough food for my lunch – an extra 1 ½ pounds of smoked salmon – he did not eat his six boiled eggs for lunch. So, with some peeled prickly pear cactus fruits, he had a decent dinner, and a small breakfast. He got under a ledge to avoid the wind and increasing cold, but about 10:00 PM he began shivering. About that time, we got him on several prayer chains, and the temperature where he was went up. He stopped shivering, and got a good night’s sleep. Mind you, Kanab Utah in one direction and Page Arizona in the other direction dropped down to 40 degrees Fahrenheit and 53 degrees. Several thousand feet higher elevation, he should have been colder – about 32 degrees. A seventy year old man, even though experienced in wilderness travel, might not have survived those temperatures.
He also rationed his water, but still ran out. He found another reflecting pool, and drank about 1 ½ quarts. Those pools are only found there about every third year, and only briefly then.
So he had food, water and warmth – every thing he needed to survive, yet all three should not, naturally, have been there.
God answered our prayers, and our friend is alive!
And he is now home, working on his roof. No ill effects from drinking the surface water, no excessive tiredness, and in good health.
God is good. All the time.
Thank You, LORD Jesus Christ!
That evening, I had the tremendous burden of following four people out.
The trip from Washington State was tremendous, with gorgeous scenery and pleasant fellowship. The three of us met the other two in Kanab, Utah, and drove 30 miles east, then turned and drove 8.2 miles on a rock (dirt?) road to the trailhead. We slept there overnight, and left at 7 AM, as soon as it was light enough to walk over the cobbles in the river bed. The five-mile walk to The Wave was also pleasant, helped by my having been there once before.
The Wave is as beautiful as ever, although the delicate sandstone ledges have been worn off by people in the last three years. I had prayed for a reflecting pool, and although there wasn’t one at the base of The Wave, there were five higher up. I can hardly wait for the slides to come back.
After lunch, we agreed to meet at 1:30 at the entrance, to begin the walk back. We should depart with about 2 quarts of water per person, and 1:30 was when we would be that low. At 1:00, one of us, who will go un-named, decided that he could visit the Second Wave, and “I will be back in 15 minutes”. Thirty minutes later, we began our search for him. Did I mention that we had three rules? 1. Take at least 1 ½ gallons of water, each, 2. Stay in sight of the group, and 3. No shortcuts.
We searched for four hours, shouting his name, using my whistle, and getting six other hikers involved. No sign of him. At least, every drop-off into the 800-foot deep the canyon had undisturbed sand at the lip, so if he went down, it was under his own power. When we were down to one quart of water each, I made the most difficult decision of my hiking career. Staying and dying of thirst would do him no good, and if we returned to the trailhead and then to Kanab, we could get a search party together.
We left after four hours of searching.
I was so tired from hiking that long that one of us had to carry my pack as well as his.
When we got to the trailhead, someone shouted that his pickup doors were open. Elation soared. Until we saw that it was some one else’s pickup.
He was still missing.
A French couple had walked past us on the trail out, and notified the Bureau of Land Management. The initial search party passed us on the dirt road. We told them everything we knew, and drove to Kanab, Utah. After notifying the other authorities, and his wife, we were told to stay in town for the night. One agency said to be at the trailhead at first light, and we could join the search. Another agency said, no, stay in Kanab and do not join the search.
They had guns so we did not argue much – that night.
The compromise the next day was that we could be at the trailhead at 10:00 AM.
The Search and Rescue helicopter, and several hiking search crews, were at the trail head when we arrived. Other hikers, including the other tourists, had left and were searching. But, the helicopter had been out twice during the night, and now the search had been on for four hours of daylight.
No sightings.
And the SAR crews told us that one hiker had already died this year, from dehydration. Couldn’t they have kept that tidbit of information to themselves?
The last two of us to see our friend carefully described where he was last seen, and pointed out on the topographic map where he was likely to be. 1. Within ½ mile of his last location, if he was injured. 2. Just past the Second Wave, and then climbed to the top of the canyon. 3. After climbing to see landmarks, he might be at the top of The Wave.
The last was the hardest place for hikers to get to, so the helicopter headed to the top of The Wave.
We briefed other search crews as they were ready to depart.
At 10:30 AM, the radio crackled with “subject located”. The SAR incident commander put the radio on that signal only, and we waited. A few minutes, later the call was “subject getting into helicopter”. We all asked, does that mean under his own power? That was quickly confirmed, and the searches were recalled while I broke down.
My only tears before that were when the French couple asked whether it was hard, abandoning our friend. I said, grimly, that I have never abandoned anyone in the field, and I am not abandoning him now. We are going to find him at the trail head, and if he isn’t there we will get together a search party. We WERE NOT abandoning him.
Now that I knew he was safe, I wept openly, and so hard that two search crews asked if I needed help. No, I was just overcome by emotion, and that emotion was good.
To Coconino County Search and Rescue: Thank you.
To the Marine on the helicopter crew: Thank you. This Navy man has a greater respect for the USMC. Long may you proudly serve.
Especially to God: Thank you. Only You could save his life. Thank You. Thank You. Thank You.
Our friend described his experience, and does not want any one to think that he was lost. He merely had trouble locating the rest of us.
He returned to The Wave fifteen minutes after he left us, but we were not there, and it was not The Wave. He decided to try the next small canyon up, and when we were not there, he tried the next canyon up.
Eventually, he went up high enough to spot land marks in the permit photographs, but from that high they were not recognizable.
It seems the he started a canyon or two too high and went still higher.
He was found on top of The Wave, about 1,000 feet above where he needed to be.
Because I broke my vow and carried more than enough food for my lunch – an extra 1 ½ pounds of smoked salmon – he did not eat his six boiled eggs for lunch. So, with some peeled prickly pear cactus fruits, he had a decent dinner, and a small breakfast. He got under a ledge to avoid the wind and increasing cold, but about 10:00 PM he began shivering. About that time, we got him on several prayer chains, and the temperature where he was went up. He stopped shivering, and got a good night’s sleep. Mind you, Kanab Utah in one direction and Page Arizona in the other direction dropped down to 40 degrees Fahrenheit and 53 degrees. Several thousand feet higher elevation, he should have been colder – about 32 degrees. A seventy year old man, even though experienced in wilderness travel, might not have survived those temperatures.
He also rationed his water, but still ran out. He found another reflecting pool, and drank about 1 ½ quarts. Those pools are only found there about every third year, and only briefly then.
So he had food, water and warmth – every thing he needed to survive, yet all three should not, naturally, have been there.
God answered our prayers, and our friend is alive!
And he is now home, working on his roof. No ill effects from drinking the surface water, no excessive tiredness, and in good health.
God is good. All the time.
Thank You, LORD Jesus Christ!
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Mom
This is an edited version of a long letter I wrote to my mother.
November 24, 2003
Dear Mom:
I'm thrilled to hear how well you are doing, recovering from your bout with West Nile Virus. The sound of your voice and your sense of humor, do me good.
I am sorry that you can't remember the week after you got out of the hospital. Several of your children came by to help both before and after, and so did several friends and neighbors. Marla was a trooper, doing more than we can ever thank her for. You have raised some fine children, and your neighbors' concern shows how much you have touched their lives.
At one point, you were feeling down and wondered whether you had really done any good in your life. I told you what a difference you have made in many people's lives. Scientists say that we never really forget anything, but that trauma doesn't let us remember truly painful things, so we forget the thing just before the pain, or for some time after. So, at some level, we do remember the events, but we block them out. I pray that in your spirit, you do remember what I said, since I believe it brought you much joy and comfort.
Mom, you gave life to thirteen children, and although one has gone on to be with the Lord, you raised twelve responsible adults, who contribute to the lives of not only their families, but the community. None of them are drunks or drug addicts, all of them work hard, and they all love you and each other. We are all good husbands or wives, good parents, and we all try to do our best. We are all better people than we would have been without you. You worked every day to feed and clothe us, you ensured we got good educations, and you loved us even when we did things we clearly should not have. You have kept us in line, you have helped keep Dad in line, and you did it all with grace and good humor. You are the best person I have ever known.
At that point, Dad said that if I kept talking, you would think you were an angel. No, Mom, not an angel, since angels are created beings, sent to minister to the saints. You are one of those saints, a human being, with the faults of a human being. But, you accepted Jesus Christ at an early age, and you have lived a Christian life. At least three of your sons and both daughters are walking with Jesus. None of us perfectly, but we will go to heaven when we die. With the next salvation, the majority of your children are destined for heaven – how many mothers can claim such an achievement?
The plaque that you hung in each house we lived in quotes Proverbs 3:6 "In all your ways acknowledge Him, and He shall direct your paths." I remember you quoting Ruth, “Where you go, I will go, where you lodge, I will lodge. Your people shall be my people, and your God, my God. Where you die, I will die, and there I shall be buried.” You said that that was your vow when you got married. Mom, you have fulfilled your vow.
Jesus said that, if we want to be a leader, we should be a servant, and if we want to be the leader of all, we should be the servant of all. You have been a servant to your husband, to every one of your children, to your friends and neighbors, to your parents, to your brothers and sisters, and to everyone within your reach.
You are the best person I have ever met.
Mom, the only complaint you had when you were sick was that you wished you could help others rather than being a burden. Mom, it was a pleasure to serve you, and in some small way to repay you for your servanthood through all these years. Mom, you have been the servant of all, and I am confident that hereafter there is laid up for you a crown of righteousness.
Whatever successes any of your children have achieved are partly due to your guidance and leadership.
I love you, and hope to see you soon.
Greg
This June, I had the opportunity to share this letter with several family and friends. I read it as my mother's eulogy. She passed away peacefully, and is now in God's presence, where God has wiped away any tears she may have.
Mom led a long and Godly, Christian life, and I can only repeat: Mom, you have fulfilled your vow, and I love you.
November 24, 2003
Dear Mom:
I'm thrilled to hear how well you are doing, recovering from your bout with West Nile Virus. The sound of your voice and your sense of humor, do me good.
I am sorry that you can't remember the week after you got out of the hospital. Several of your children came by to help both before and after, and so did several friends and neighbors. Marla was a trooper, doing more than we can ever thank her for. You have raised some fine children, and your neighbors' concern shows how much you have touched their lives.
At one point, you were feeling down and wondered whether you had really done any good in your life. I told you what a difference you have made in many people's lives. Scientists say that we never really forget anything, but that trauma doesn't let us remember truly painful things, so we forget the thing just before the pain, or for some time after. So, at some level, we do remember the events, but we block them out. I pray that in your spirit, you do remember what I said, since I believe it brought you much joy and comfort.
Mom, you gave life to thirteen children, and although one has gone on to be with the Lord, you raised twelve responsible adults, who contribute to the lives of not only their families, but the community. None of them are drunks or drug addicts, all of them work hard, and they all love you and each other. We are all good husbands or wives, good parents, and we all try to do our best. We are all better people than we would have been without you. You worked every day to feed and clothe us, you ensured we got good educations, and you loved us even when we did things we clearly should not have. You have kept us in line, you have helped keep Dad in line, and you did it all with grace and good humor. You are the best person I have ever known.
At that point, Dad said that if I kept talking, you would think you were an angel. No, Mom, not an angel, since angels are created beings, sent to minister to the saints. You are one of those saints, a human being, with the faults of a human being. But, you accepted Jesus Christ at an early age, and you have lived a Christian life. At least three of your sons and both daughters are walking with Jesus. None of us perfectly, but we will go to heaven when we die. With the next salvation, the majority of your children are destined for heaven – how many mothers can claim such an achievement?
The plaque that you hung in each house we lived in quotes Proverbs 3:6 "In all your ways acknowledge Him, and He shall direct your paths." I remember you quoting Ruth, “Where you go, I will go, where you lodge, I will lodge. Your people shall be my people, and your God, my God. Where you die, I will die, and there I shall be buried.” You said that that was your vow when you got married. Mom, you have fulfilled your vow.
Jesus said that, if we want to be a leader, we should be a servant, and if we want to be the leader of all, we should be the servant of all. You have been a servant to your husband, to every one of your children, to your friends and neighbors, to your parents, to your brothers and sisters, and to everyone within your reach.
You are the best person I have ever met.
Mom, the only complaint you had when you were sick was that you wished you could help others rather than being a burden. Mom, it was a pleasure to serve you, and in some small way to repay you for your servanthood through all these years. Mom, you have been the servant of all, and I am confident that hereafter there is laid up for you a crown of righteousness.
Whatever successes any of your children have achieved are partly due to your guidance and leadership.
I love you, and hope to see you soon.
Greg
This June, I had the opportunity to share this letter with several family and friends. I read it as my mother's eulogy. She passed away peacefully, and is now in God's presence, where God has wiped away any tears she may have.
Mom led a long and Godly, Christian life, and I can only repeat: Mom, you have fulfilled your vow, and I love you.
Friday, April 29, 2011
What Happened in Japan?
Having just watched "Nuclear Nightmare: Japan In Crisis" with Paula Zahn, I must say that Paula Zahn and the Discovery Channel got it pretty much right.
The Richter 9 earthquake, and the 47 foot tsunami after it, resulted in unbelievable damage to the Fukushima nuclear plants (all six of them).
Fukushima was designed for a 7.9 earthquake and a 30 foot tsunami.
The worst result was at plant four. The spent nuclear fuel in plant 4 was safe - until the water in the pool either splashed out drained out through a crack. The fuel overheated, reacted with the steam, and created hydrogen. The hydrogen exploded on day four - at dawn on March 15. But guess what? The hydrogen was inside the partially melted nuclear fuel. The explosion sprays nuclear material into the air, causing a "radiation spike" and the majority of the radioactive material release.
Or maybe not. Plant two found a radioactive water release, which was not stopped until April 5. But this plant's containment was suspected to be damaged on March 15 - and the water release probably started as soon as the damage occurred.
Worse, and a surprise to many in the nuclear community - the plant 2 containment was probably damaged and cracked on day 1. Either the earthquake shock wave cracked the suppression pool, called a torus, or the tsunami bent the entire nuclear plant on it's foundation, which cracked the torus.
And the massive radioactive release began on day 1. Day 1, when the fuel had not had time to decay to anything anywhere near safe levels.
This is my conclusion, for whatever it is worth.
And it is the best way I know to explain how the release could be 1/10 of what Chernobyl released. (Al though I believe the release was way below that.)
We won't know for sure for six months or more, when humans can examine the plants carefully.
The Richter 9 earthquake, and the 47 foot tsunami after it, resulted in unbelievable damage to the Fukushima nuclear plants (all six of them).
Fukushima was designed for a 7.9 earthquake and a 30 foot tsunami.
The worst result was at plant four. The spent nuclear fuel in plant 4 was safe - until the water in the pool either splashed out drained out through a crack. The fuel overheated, reacted with the steam, and created hydrogen. The hydrogen exploded on day four - at dawn on March 15. But guess what? The hydrogen was inside the partially melted nuclear fuel. The explosion sprays nuclear material into the air, causing a "radiation spike" and the majority of the radioactive material release.
Or maybe not. Plant two found a radioactive water release, which was not stopped until April 5. But this plant's containment was suspected to be damaged on March 15 - and the water release probably started as soon as the damage occurred.
Worse, and a surprise to many in the nuclear community - the plant 2 containment was probably damaged and cracked on day 1. Either the earthquake shock wave cracked the suppression pool, called a torus, or the tsunami bent the entire nuclear plant on it's foundation, which cracked the torus.
And the massive radioactive release began on day 1. Day 1, when the fuel had not had time to decay to anything anywhere near safe levels.
This is my conclusion, for whatever it is worth.
And it is the best way I know to explain how the release could be 1/10 of what Chernobyl released. (Al though I believe the release was way below that.)
We won't know for sure for six months or more, when humans can examine the plants carefully.
Japan's Nuclear Nightmare
In spite of a dearth of information, here is how I see the Japanese nuclear situation.
When the U.S. DOE provided maps of the nuclear contamination http://blog.energy.gov/content/situation-japan I calculated the total release, getting 5.9 million curies (5,900,000). That is about 1/10 what Chernobyl released.
But, I found an error in my calculations - I had assumed point sources beneath the radiation detectors. Actually each detector received radiation from directly below it, and from the areas nearby, and from everywhere out to the horizon. When I calculated assuming a spread-out source, I got just 15,000 curies released. Which one is more accurate? That depends on how the U.S. DOE did it's calculations.
The DOE maps do not show what they detected - the airplanes flew several hundred feet up, and detected radiation at that level. They then put out maps showing how bad it is at knee high (one meter). Unless I can see how they re-calculated to get what they reported, I cannot be sure how accurate my calculations are.
Before I could get someone to check my modelling and my math, Japan's nuclear safety agency reported that the total release was 5,000,000 curies, or 1/10 of what Chernobyl released (check this, http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1304052023P.pdf , second page, red line near the bottom).
I was so disheartened that I made no new blog entries for 26 days.
BUT ... Japan also reports that the maximum dose to infant's thyroids will be less than 50 Rem. That is consistent with 15,000 curies, not with 5,000,000 curies.
Did Japan's nuclear safety agency make the same mistake that I made? Are they now afraid to correct their published error? I hope so.
All the information I have says, the release was less than 150,000 curies.
A nightmare; a disaster; but not a Chernobyl and not a catastrophe.
Not enough to cause more than about 40 deaths to members of the public.
The Fukushima 50 are a different matter. Their doses are quite high; they may have sacrificed their health, or even their lives, to keep the rest of us safe. May God bless them and keep them - and theirs.
When the U.S. DOE provided maps of the nuclear contamination http://blog.energy.gov/content/situation-japan I calculated the total release, getting 5.9 million curies (5,900,000). That is about 1/10 what Chernobyl released.
But, I found an error in my calculations - I had assumed point sources beneath the radiation detectors. Actually each detector received radiation from directly below it, and from the areas nearby, and from everywhere out to the horizon. When I calculated assuming a spread-out source, I got just 15,000 curies released. Which one is more accurate? That depends on how the U.S. DOE did it's calculations.
The DOE maps do not show what they detected - the airplanes flew several hundred feet up, and detected radiation at that level. They then put out maps showing how bad it is at knee high (one meter). Unless I can see how they re-calculated to get what they reported, I cannot be sure how accurate my calculations are.
Before I could get someone to check my modelling and my math, Japan's nuclear safety agency reported that the total release was 5,000,000 curies, or 1/10 of what Chernobyl released (check this, http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1304052023P.pdf , second page, red line near the bottom).
I was so disheartened that I made no new blog entries for 26 days.
BUT ... Japan also reports that the maximum dose to infant's thyroids will be less than 50 Rem. That is consistent with 15,000 curies, not with 5,000,000 curies.
Did Japan's nuclear safety agency make the same mistake that I made? Are they now afraid to correct their published error? I hope so.
All the information I have says, the release was less than 150,000 curies.
A nightmare; a disaster; but not a Chernobyl and not a catastrophe.
Not enough to cause more than about 40 deaths to members of the public.
The Fukushima 50 are a different matter. Their doses are quite high; they may have sacrificed their health, or even their lives, to keep the rest of us safe. May God bless them and keep them - and theirs.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Bad but not a Catastrophe
The Fukushima Fifty operators believe they may die from radiation exposure. Pray for them, and thank God for keeping them loyally on the job. Their efforts have kept the disaster from growing to a catastrophe.
And, child doses, even to the thyroid, is minimal. 900 infants were tested and are OK. My apology for optimism below, may have been premature. http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/aij/member/2011/earthquakereport41.pdf
The United States Department of Energy has flown over the Fukushima area and recorded the radiation. http://blog.energy.gov/content/situation-japan
Maximum doses outside the plant are less than 0.03 Rem per hour. That means 100 hours would get people 3 Rem, or 1000 hours would give 30 Rem.
30 Rem is where doctor's can test the blood, and find minor changes. Below that level, there are no short-term effects.
The radiation has dropped by a factor of ten in two days. Unless something major happens, the people will not ... repeat, not, get more that 30 Rem. No short-term effects.
That leaves cancer and other major illnesses.
The total release cannot be accurately estimated - yet. Japan and the utility, TEPCO, have not released enough information.
Nuclear reactors have several layers of defense against a release. The innermost one is the fuel itself. It is hard to melt this ceramic fuel. Second is a primary cooling system, with steel walls. Third that is a containment building, with steel lining and reinforced concrete strength. Fourth is a reactor building, which protects the containment.
But, the fuel and primary coolant system of three plants (1,2,3) are severely damaged or melted (and re-frozen). The containments of all three are functional, although one is damaged. Radiation within the fuel has decayed so much that it is highly unlikely that any containment will be further damaged. This means that the reactor fuel will stay in the reactors - all but about 1 percent, which has already been released. Plants one and three had hydrogen explosions outside the containment, but inside the reactor building.
And, the fuel in one spent nuclear fuel pool - for unit 4 - has been damaged and probably melted. This is the unit which had a hydrogen explosion, and it apparently happened while the fuel was melted. How could it melt? The best judgement on this side of the Pacific is, this spent fuel pool either splashed nearly dry during the Richter 9 earthquake, or more likely, it leaked due to the quake.
This hydrogen explosion drove fuel outside the nuclear plant, and may explain the hot spots of radiation scattered over two prefectures. If people stay away from these hot spots, they should be OK.
The rest of the reactors are reasonably safe.
Thanks to God and the loyalty of the Fukushima Fifty.
And, child doses, even to the thyroid, is minimal. 900 infants were tested and are OK. My apology for optimism below, may have been premature. http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/aij/member/2011/earthquakereport41.pdf
The United States Department of Energy has flown over the Fukushima area and recorded the radiation. http://blog.energy.gov/content/situation-japan
Maximum doses outside the plant are less than 0.03 Rem per hour. That means 100 hours would get people 3 Rem, or 1000 hours would give 30 Rem.
30 Rem is where doctor's can test the blood, and find minor changes. Below that level, there are no short-term effects.
The radiation has dropped by a factor of ten in two days. Unless something major happens, the people will not ... repeat, not, get more that 30 Rem. No short-term effects.
That leaves cancer and other major illnesses.
The total release cannot be accurately estimated - yet. Japan and the utility, TEPCO, have not released enough information.
Nuclear reactors have several layers of defense against a release. The innermost one is the fuel itself. It is hard to melt this ceramic fuel. Second is a primary cooling system, with steel walls. Third that is a containment building, with steel lining and reinforced concrete strength. Fourth is a reactor building, which protects the containment.
But, the fuel and primary coolant system of three plants (1,2,3) are severely damaged or melted (and re-frozen). The containments of all three are functional, although one is damaged. Radiation within the fuel has decayed so much that it is highly unlikely that any containment will be further damaged. This means that the reactor fuel will stay in the reactors - all but about 1 percent, which has already been released. Plants one and three had hydrogen explosions outside the containment, but inside the reactor building.
And, the fuel in one spent nuclear fuel pool - for unit 4 - has been damaged and probably melted. This is the unit which had a hydrogen explosion, and it apparently happened while the fuel was melted. How could it melt? The best judgement on this side of the Pacific is, this spent fuel pool either splashed nearly dry during the Richter 9 earthquake, or more likely, it leaked due to the quake.
This hydrogen explosion drove fuel outside the nuclear plant, and may explain the hot spots of radiation scattered over two prefectures. If people stay away from these hot spots, they should be OK.
The rest of the reactors are reasonably safe.
Thanks to God and the loyalty of the Fukushima Fifty.
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