Not a Chernobyl

I have reviewed several reports on Chernobyl, and the Japan nuclear scare is no Chernobyl.

The radioactive material inside the reactors has decayed to less than 0.5 percent of the original operating power level. What remains is less than one part in 23 of what it was the day of the Richter 9.0 quake and tsunami.

Now, if the absolute worst accident occurs - if there is an explosion inside the containment that vaporizes most of the fuel and evaporates the containment - the result will be a release that is 1/23 as bad as Chernobyl. And even less than that, since the Japanese reactors were smaller than Chernobyl.

If the anti-nuclear estimate of 4,000 thyroid cancers from Chernobyl is accurate, there would be a maximum of 45 thyroid cancers in Japan.

Wait, less than that, because the reactors are on the coast, and the prevailing winds will blow the radioactive cloud harmlessly out to sea. At Chernobyl, the winds blew the cloud north over Sweden, and only then went back east over eastern Europe, Siberia, and then around the world. Since there is wind and snow in Japan, the radioactivity will be carried over the Pacific, and then be washed into the sea.

Which is just what my church has prayed for.